{"id":1378,"date":"2025-11-23T00:20:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T20:50:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/?page_id=1378"},"modified":"2025-11-23T00:33:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T21:03:09","slug":"demand-management-using-autoregressive-time-series-modeling-in-mobile-value-added-services","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/demand-management-using-autoregressive-time-series-modeling-in-mobile-value-added-services\/","title":{"rendered":"Demand Management using Autoregressive-Time Series Modeling in Mobile Value-Added Services"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"1378\" class=\"elementor elementor-1378\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ec683a6 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ec683a6\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;fixed&quot;,&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f5427dc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f5427dc\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-33780a5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"33780a5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;vlt_animated_widget_animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Mohammad Hosein Vaghefzadeh<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-02a52f8 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"02a52f8\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0ae3ae7 elementor-nav-menu__align-center elementor-nav-menu--stretch elementor-nav-menu__text-align-center 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tabindex=\"-1\">Research and writings<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-1295\"><a href=\"#Blog\" class=\"elementor-item elementor-item-anchor\" tabindex=\"-1\">Articles<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-209\"><a href=\"#Contact\" class=\"elementor-item elementor-item-anchor\" tabindex=\"-1\">Contact Me<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\t\t\t<\/nav>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c61bbba e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"c61bbba\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-679d64e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"679d64e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;vlt_animated_widget_animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Demand Management Using Autoregressive Time Series Models in the Context of Mobile Value-Added Services<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c22ebe6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c22ebe6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;vlt_animated_widget_animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"sectionInfo abstractSectionHeading\"><div class=\"padding_abstract justify rtl\">The emergence of value-added services as a new service in the mobile phone context requires actors such as content providers, intermediary companies and operators who form a supply chain. In this context, challenges such as management and modeling of demand trends, customer behavior and the \"bullwhip effect\" emerge. The present study aims to conduct a detailed study of the demand trends entering the network and the resulting bullwhip effect in the field of mobile value-added services supply chain.<\/div><div class=\"padding_abstract justify rtl\">Therefore, considering the existence of the \"conditional autoregressive\" effect in the core of customer demand data over a certain period of time, ARCH family models are used. The results related to the impact of demand forecasting using three of the most famous ARCH family models on the \"bullwhip effect\" indicate that the ARMA(1,1)\/EGARCH(1,1) model has a significant advantage over the GARCH and GJR models in analyzing demand trends.<\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a6aa7a2 elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"a6aa7a2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;vlt_animated_widget_animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/jimp.sbu.ac.ir\/article_87171.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Read more<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u062d\u0633\u06cc\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0642\u0641 \u0632\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u06cc\u0631\u06cc\u062a \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627 \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u062f\u0644\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0633\u0631\u06cc\u200c \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u062e\u0648\u062f\u0631\u06af\u0631\u0633\u06cc\u0648 \u062f\u0631 \u0628\u0633\u062a\u0631 \u062e\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0631\u0632\u0634 \u0627\u0641\u0632\u0648\u062f\u0647 \u062a\u0644\u0641\u0646 \u0647\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u0638\u0647\u0648\u0631 \u062e\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0631\u0632\u0634 \u0627\u0641\u0632\u0648\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0647\u200c\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u06cc\u06a9\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u062e\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0648\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0631 \u0628\u0633\u062a\u0631 \u062a\u0644\u0641\u0646 \u0647\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u0646\u06cc\u0627\u0632\u0645\u0646\u062f \u0628\u0627\u0632\u06cc\u06af\u0631\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0642\u0628\u06cc\u0644 \u062a\u0623\u0645\u06cc\u0646\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f\u06af\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0648\u0627\u060c \u0634\u0631\u06a9\u062a\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0637\u0647 \u0648 \u0627\u067e\u0631\u0627\u062a\u0648\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0632\u0646\u062c\u06cc\u0631\u0647 \u062a\u0623\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u062a\u0634\u06a9\u06cc\u0644 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u0646\u062f. \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0628\u0633\u062a\u0631\u060c \u0686\u0627\u0644\u0634\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0627\u0632 [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_canvas","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1378","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1378"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1378\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1382,"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1378\/revisions\/1382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}