{"id":1357,"date":"2025-11-22T23:42:42","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T20:12:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/?page_id=1357"},"modified":"2025-11-22T23:52:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T20:22:12","slug":"analysis-and-forecast-of-non-stationary-demand-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/analysis-and-forecast-of-non-stationary-demand-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelling customer demand for mobile value-added services"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"1357\" class=\"elementor elementor-1357\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ec683a6 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ec683a6\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;fixed&quot;,&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f5427dc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f5427dc\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-33780a5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"33780a5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;vlt_animated_widget_animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Mohammad Hosein Vaghefzadeh<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-02a52f8 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"02a52f8\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0ae3ae7 elementor-nav-menu__align-center elementor-nav-menu--stretch elementor-nav-menu__text-align-center elementor-nav-menu--dropdown-tablet elementor-nav-menu--toggle elementor-nav-menu--burger elementor-widget elementor-widget-nav-menu\" data-id=\"0ae3ae7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" 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id=\"menu-2-0ae3ae7\" class=\"elementor-nav-menu\"><li class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-200\"><a href=\"#homee\" class=\"elementor-item elementor-item-anchor\" tabindex=\"-1\">Home<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-205\"><a href=\"#educate\" class=\"elementor-item elementor-item-anchor\" tabindex=\"-1\">Education<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-206\"><a href=\"#Testimonials\" class=\"elementor-item elementor-item-anchor\" tabindex=\"-1\">Work experiences<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-207\"><a href=\"#Partners\" class=\"elementor-item elementor-item-anchor\" tabindex=\"-1\">Research and writings<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-1295\"><a href=\"#Blog\" class=\"elementor-item elementor-item-anchor\" tabindex=\"-1\">Articles<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-209\"><a href=\"#Contact\" class=\"elementor-item elementor-item-anchor\" tabindex=\"-1\">Contact Me<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\t\t\t<\/nav>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c61bbba e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"c61bbba\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-679d64e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"679d64e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;vlt_animated_widget_animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Modelling customer demand for mobile value-added services: non-stationary time series models or neural networks time series analysis?<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c22ebe6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c22ebe6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;vlt_animated_widget_animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"sectionInfo abstractSectionHeading\"><div id=\"abstract-body\" style=\"direction: ltr;\">The present research applies two different modelling approaches to evaluate the historical demand for a special mobile value-added service (VAS) that is offered and delivered to airline customers. The first method is deterministic and includes non-stationary time series models that cover both mean and variance fluctuation, as well as seasonality effect, in the dataset.<\/div><div style=\"direction: ltr;\">The second method is a metaheuristic approach in the form of artificial neural network time series analysis (ANN-TSA). These methods are used to evaluate the power of each category and to choose the best model based on appropriate criteria. The results show that non-stationary time series models outperform ANN-TSA, as indicated by the smaller number of errors in the simulation of the demand dataset.<\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a6aa7a2 elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"a6aa7a2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;vlt_animated_widget_animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/a\/ids\/ijisen\/v43y2023i4p555-581.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Read more<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u062d\u0633\u06cc\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0642\u0641 \u0632\u0627\u062f\u0647 Modelling customer demand for mobile value-added services: non-stationary time series models or neural networks time series analysis? The present research applies two different modelling approaches to evaluate the historical demand for a special mobile value-added service (VAS) that is offered and delivered to airline customers. The first method is deterministic and [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_canvas","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1357","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1357"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1357\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1366,"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1357\/revisions\/1366"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vaghefzadeh.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}