The emergence of value-added services as a new service in the mobile phone context requires actors such as content providers, intermediary companies and operators who form a supply chain. In this context, challenges such as management and modeling of demand trends, customer behavior and the "bullwhip effect" emerge. The present study aims to conduct a detailed study of the demand trends entering the network and the resulting bullwhip effect in the field of mobile value-added services supply chain.

Therefore, considering the existence of the "conditional autoregressive" effect in the core of customer demand data over a certain period of time, ARCH family models are used. The results related to the impact of demand forecasting using three of the most famous ARCH family models on the "bullwhip effect" indicate that the ARMA(1,1)/EGARCH(1,1) model has a significant advantage over the GARCH and GJR models in analyzing demand trends.